Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – April 2017

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During April, entire country received below average rainfall. Over the last year, there has been a rainfall deficit in the Northern and Southern Islands by 20 and 15% respectively - the Northern Islands have a deficit by 300 mm; and the Southern islands by 240 mm compared to the average annual cumulative rainfalls since 2003 of 1500 mm. Rainfalls received by the northern is the lowest rainfall recorded in the region during the past 6 years. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average.

Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts climatological distribution of rainfall for Maldives until June (i.e. no signs of either higher or lower tendency ). El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not anticipate heavy rainfall in the next week.

Central islands received up to 150 mm of below average rainfall in April.

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In April, Rainfall usually is up to 200 mm in the entire country. The wind direction is westerly and the speed is higher than in April. The rainfall in northern islands usually increases up to 250 mm in June, while it decreases to 150 mm in southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually easterly but with low speeds. In July, the entire country receives up to 200 mm rainfall and the wind speed and direction does not change.

Climatology

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
19th - 23rd Apr 2017	No Rainfall.
24th Apr 2017	Up to 50 mm in northern islands and up to 20 mm in central islands.
25th Apr 2017	Up to 20 mm in central islands and up to 10 mm in northern islands.
26th Apr 2017	No Rainfall.
27th Apr 2017	Up to 50 mm in central islands.
28th Apr 2017	Up to 10 mm in central islands.
27th Apr 2017	Up to 50 mm in central islands.
28th Apr 2017	Up to 10 mm in central islands.
29th Apr 2017	No Rainfall.
30th Apr 2017	Up to 50 mm in southern islands.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In April, Southern and Central islands received up to 150 mm; and northern islands up to 90 mm of below average rainfall. The entire country received up to 240 mm of rainfall during this period. Rainfalls received by the northern is the lowest rainfall recorded in each region during the past 6 years.

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State Apr 20, 2017:

By mid-April 2017, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, with above-average SSTs present in the eastern Pacific Ocean, and near-average SSTs across the central and east-central part of the basin. Across the western and central Pacific, the pattern of cloudiness, rainfall, and winds remains suggestive of La Nina conditions. The collection of ENSO prediction models indicates increasing chances of El Nino into the summer and fall of 2017. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring March 8, 2017: 

0.5 ⁰C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS model up to 10 mm of rain is expected on May 5th in the entire country. During 6th- 8th up to 20 mm of rainfall is expected in southern islands and up to 10 mm in the central islands. On the 9th up to 10 mm of rainfall is expected in southern and central islands. Up to 10 mm of rainfall is expected in the entire country on the 10th. Central islands are expected to receive up to 40 mm of rainfall; northern islands up to 20 mm; and southern islands up to 10 mm on the 11th.

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for April to June, the total 3-month precipitation shall be climatological for the whole country. The 3-month average temperature has a 70% likelihood to be in the above-normal tercile in southern islands and 50% likelihood for central and northern islands during these 3 months.