Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction Highlights for Maldives – December 2016

HIGHLIGHTS

• Central and Southern islands received up to 60 mm of rainfall during the first two weeks of December while the Northern islands remained mostly dry. When the cumulative rainfall over the last 365 days is considered, the Northern Islands are still under deficit by 200 mm for the last 3 months while there is a slight excess. 
• NOAA CFS long-range weather prediction model predicts up to 50 mm total rainfall for Southern islands and less than 50 mm for Kolhumadulu, Haddhunmathi, Mulaku and Nilandhe atolls during 15th – 20th Dec. The NOAA GFS model predicts rainfall up to 20 mm for Southern Maldives. For the Northern and Central Islands, up to 10 mm of rainfall is predicted in the coming week. 
• The sea surfaces around the Maldives is near the seasonal averages. A mild La Nina has onset in November 2016, but the temperatures in Maldives are predicted to be slightly above average for next two months. 

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Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – November 2016

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: In November, southern islands received up to 120 mm above average rainfall while some of northern and central islands received up to 90 mm below average rainfall. During the last week of November, an increase in rainfall throughout the country was visible. The sea surface temperature around southern and central Maldives is up to 0.5⁰C above the seasonal average. In the northern islands, 15% decrease in cumulative rainfall for this year thus far is observed compared to the average cumulative rainfall since 2003. 

Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts climatological rainfall until the end of 2016. Weak La Niña conditions have set in - the Pacific SST anomaly is close to -0.5⁰C. iIn the next week, Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not anticipate extreme rainfall but heavy rainfall is expected in some places.

Northern islands received up to 120 mm rainfall in November

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---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI