Friday, December 16, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction Highlights for Maldives – December 2016


HIGHLIGHTS


  • Central and Southern islands received up to 60 mm of rainfall during the first two weeks of December while the Northern islands remained mostly dry. When the cumulative rainfall over the last 365 days is considered, the Northern Islands are still under deficit by 200 mm for the last 3 months while there is a slight excess. 
  • NOAA CFS long-range weather prediction model predicts up to 50 mm total rainfall for Southern islands and less than 50 mm for Kolhumadulu, Haddhunmathi, Mulaku and Nilandhe atolls during 15th – 20th Dec. The NOAA GFS model predicts rainfall up to 20 mm for Southern Maldives. For the Northern and Central Islands, up to 10 mm of rainfall is predicted in the coming week. 
  • The sea surfaces around the Maldives is near the seasonal averages. A mild La Nina has onset in November 2016, but the temperatures in Maldives are predicted to be slightly above average for next two months. 





 Printable Version of Images (PDF)

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – November 2016


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: In November, southern islands received up to 120 mm above average rainfall while some of northern and central islands received up to 90 mm below average rainfall. During the last week of November, an increase in rainfall throughout the country was visible. The sea surface temperature around southern and central Maldives is up to 0.50C above the seasonal average. In the northern islands, 15% decrease in cumulative rainfall for this year thus far is observed compared to the average cumulative rainfall since 2003. 

Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts climatological rainfall until the end of 2016. Weak La Niña conditions have set in - the Pacific SST anomaly is close to -0.50C. iIn the next week, Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not anticipate extreme rainfall but heavy rainfall is expected in some places.

Northern islands received up to 120 mm rainfall in November

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Monday, November 7, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – October 2016


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: In October, central islands received up to 120 mm above average rainfall while northern and southern islands received up to 120 mm below average rainfall. Up to 180 mm rainfall received by the central islands is the highest rainfall received in past six years in this region for this period. During the last week of October a decrease in rainfall throughout the country was visible. The sea surface temperature around Maldives and Sri Lanka is up to 0.50C above the seasonal average. 
Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts 50% chance of having below average rainfall until the end of 2016. Some El Nino prediction models suggest of weak La Niña conditions as the Pacific SST anomaly is close to -0.50C. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not expect heavy rainfall in the next week.
Central islands received up to 180 mm rainfall in October


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Tuesday, October 4, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – September 2016


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: Up to 250 mm and 200 mm rainfall was received by central and southern islands respectively at the beginning of September 2016. Thereafter dry conditions were seen throughout the Maldives. No rainfall was seen in any part of the country after the 19th of September. The cumulative rainfall of the past 365 days remains above average due to previous high rainfalls. The sea surface temperature around Maldives and Sri Lanka is up to 10C below the seasonal average. Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts 50% chance of having below average rainfall until the end of 2016. Some El Nino prediction models suggest of weak La Niña conditions as the Pacific SST anomaly is close to -0.50C. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not expect heavy rainfall in the next week.
Central islands received more than 200 mm rainfall in August


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – August 2016


HIGHLIGHTS

In July, northern and central islands received up to 200 mm above average rainfall while southern islands received up to 100 mm below average rainfall. The amount of rainfall received by northern and central islands is the highest amount received in past six years in these regions. Since the last week of July a decrease in rainfall throughout the country was visible and the first week of August was mostly dry. Heavy rainfall was received by central islands in late August. During August, the sea and land temperatures remained warmer than climatological. The wind speeds were high due to the SW Monsoon.
Northern islands received up to 200 mm rainfall in July



 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Friday, August 12, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – July 2016


HIGHLIGHTS

The entire country received up to 200 mm less than average rainfall in June 2016. In July, northern and central islands received up to 200 mm above average rainfall while southern islands received up to 100 mm below average rainfall. The amount of rainfall received by northern and central islands is the highest amount received in past six years in these regions. Since the last week of July a decrease in rainfall throughout the country was visible and the first week of August was mostly dry. Dry conditions shall prevail in the second week of August as well. ENSO models predict likely development of La Niña conditions during August or September.


Rainfall Anomaly in June 2016. The Entire country received below average rainfall

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction Highlights for Maldives – July 2016


HIGHLIGHTS

Heavy rainfall was observed throughout the country during the first week of July with Central and Southern islands receiving rainfall up to 40 mm. During the second week of July the rainfall decreased gradually with only Central islands receiving light rainfalls. IRI CFS model predicts up to 50 mm total rainfall for Northern islands and less than 50 mm for Central islands during 11th – 16th July. GFS (T574) model predicts rainfall up to 10 mm for entire Maldives and a gradual increase in rainfall for Northern islands up to 40 mm in the coming week.




 Printable Version of Images (PDF)

Friday, July 1, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – June 2016


HIGHLIGHTS

Heavy rainfall was seen in the entire Maldives in May 2016 and the rainfall gradually decreased during the first three weeks of June. In northern and central islands, rainfall ceased by mid-June and in southern islands, rainfall ceased by early June and increased until mid-June up to 60 mm. NOAA CFS model does not predict heavy rainfall in the next few days in any part of the Maldives. The IRI predicts La Niña conditions by late June which shall give a drier tendency to rainfall in central and south central regions. In Northern and southernmost island rainfall shall have a wetter tendency. The sea around the Maldives show a much reduced level of warming.
Rainfall in the southern islands of the Maldives in the last 6 years.



 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Experimental Hydro Meteorological Highlights for the Maldives- June 2016

HIGHLIGHTS

Up to 20 mm rainfall was seen in the Northern islands of the Maldives while the rest of the country remained dry during 29th May- 12 June 2016. IRI CFS model predicts up to 50 mm total rain in during 13th- 18th June in northern and central islands. Heavy rainfall is not expected in any part of the country during this period. 

 Monitoring & Prediction Maps (PDF)

Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Can Maldives reefs recover from El Nino?

Original Article:Link
 by Hassan Moosa

The reef of Villingili Island, just a few minutes away from Malé, has suffered damage from reclamation, dredging and harbor construction. It took another hit this year when warmer ocean temperatures, caused by the El Nino, killed a majority of its coral. On a recent dive, I found a graveyard on the island’s reef slope. A slimy layer of brown green algae covered the dead corals, while the few that still held out were bleached white. Some had startling spots of purple and pink, indicating a former more colorful appearance.

Thursday, May 26, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – May 2016


HIGHLIGHTS

Extraordinary Rainfall close to 60 mm/day was observed in and around the Maldives which caused flooding in many islands. The highest average daily rainfall is typically 7 mm/day. The sea around the Maldives also had rainfall excess of 100 mm/day. This high rainfall ceased on the 20th and no heavy rainfall was seen in the Maldives since that day. The rainfall observed in the first weeks of May is the highest rainfall received by Northern and Southern islands this year. The first four months had been dry in the Northern Maldives and therefore this rain helped to lessen the cumulative rainfall deficit in this region since last December, Global weather model prediction does not expect any extreme rainfall in the remaining days of this month. The Sea surface around the Maldives and Sri Lanka has become cooler and its Only 0.5 0C above average This had risen up to 1 0C in the previous months while the El Niño was strong. El Nino is now moderate and is expected to become neutral by the end of this month.

Rainfall anomalies in Maldives in Feb 2016. Southern most atolls received above average rainfall while northern most atolls received average rainfall.


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – April 2016


HIGHLIGHTS

Northern and central islands did not receive any rainfall during March 2016, but southern islands received around 100 mm rain during this month. In the first weeks of April, around 20 mm rainfall was seen for the first time this year in northern island. Central and southern islands also received 80- 100 mm rainfall, which is higher compared to previous months, in April. Rainfall in May is usually higher than in April for all of Maldives. With the weakening of El Niño conditions, higher rainfall can be expected next month. The global climate models are predicting climatological rainfall but warmer than climatological temperatures across Maldives.

Rainfall anomalies in Maldives in Feb 2016. Southern most atolls received above average rainfall while northern most atolls received average rainfall.


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Thursday, March 31, 2016

Climate Model Predicts West Antarctic Ice Sheet Could Melt Rapidly

By Justin Gillis  March 30, 2016

A view from a NASA airplane of large icebergs that have broken from the calving side of Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica in November 2014. A disaster scenario of West Antarctic ice sheet disintegration could occur much sooner than previously thought, new research suggests.
Credit  Image: Jim Yungel/NASA

For half a century, climate scientists have seen the West Antarctic ice sheet, a remnant of the last ice age, as a sword of Damocles hanging over human civilization.

The great ice sheet, larger than Mexico, is thought to be potentially vulnerable to disintegration from a relatively small amount of global warming, and capable of raising the sea level by 12 feet or more should it break up. But researchers long assumed the worst effects would take hundreds — if not thousands — of years to occur.

Now, new research suggests the disaster scenario could play out much sooner.

Continued high emissions of heat-trapping gases could launch a disintegration of the ice sheet within decades, according to a study published Wednesday, heaving enough water into the ocean to raise the sea level as much as three feet by the end of this century.

With ice melting in other regions, too, the total rise of the sea could reach five or six feet by 2100, the researchers found. That is roughly twice the increase reported as a plausible worst-case scenario by a United Nations panel just three years ago, and so high it would likely provoke a profound crisis within the lifetimes of children being born today.

Monday, March 28, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – March 2016

HIGHLIGHTS

The southern islands were quite wet during February and first 3 weeks of March. Northern islands did not receive any rainfall during this period while central islands received moderate rainfall. The seven-day forecasts suggest that there shall be no rainfall in the next few days in any island. There is an El Nino that is ongoing which may last at least a few more months. The most direct impact is the warmer seasonal temperatures.

Rainfall anomalies in Maldives in Feb 2016. Southern most atolls received above average rainfall while northern most atolls received average rainfall.


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Thursday, February 25, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – February 2016

HIGHLIGHTS

High rainfall compared to previous five Januaries was observed in January 2016 in southern and central islands. Southern and central islands received up to 100 and 120 mm rainfall in the final week of January 2016. February 2016 up to now has been dry compared to January and according to the IRI CFS models shall remain dry in the next few days as well. There shall be a continuation of El Nino conditions in March which shall contribute to the usual relatively dry weather during March for Central and particularly Northern Islands. The El Nino conditions and the warmer Indian Ocean conditions are leading to warmer conditions across the Maldives for the next 3 months.

Rainfall anomalies in Maldives in Jan 2016. Northern most atolls received below average rainfall while southern most atolls received above average rainfall.


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – January 2016

HIGHLIGHTS

The rainfall throughout the Maldives (except the Northern) during December 2015 was much lower than in previous months. In early December a peak in rainfall was observed in northern islands. This was the highest rainfall observed in the Maldives region in 2015 over any 10 day period. Central and southern islands also received low amounts of rainfall during December. In January 2016 rainfall was low throughout the country except for very few high rainfall events in the southern islands. Seasonal climate models predict rainfall to have a drier tendency during February to April 2016 for the Central Islands and no clear tendencies for the Northern and Southern Islands. Temperature is predicted to be warmer than seasonal averages till April in all the islands with higher confidence. Such a dry and warm tendency is expected during El Nino in the Central islands . A continuation of El Niño conditions is also predicted for these 3 months.

Rainfall anomalies in Maldives in Dec 2015. The entire country received below average rainfall while northern most atolls received above average rainfall.


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Thursday, January 14, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – December 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

The rainfall throughout the Maldives (except the Northern) during December 2015 was much lower than in previous months. In early December a peak in rainfall was observed in northern islands. This was the highest rainfall observe in the Maldives region in 2015 over any 10 day period. Central and southern islands also received low amounts of rainfall during December. Seasonal climate models predict rainfall to be climatological during January to March 2016. A continuation of El Niño conditions is also predicted for these 3 months. In January, during El Nino conditions, the rainfall in southern islands is usually enhanced. But there is a slight drop in rainfall, in northern or central islands due to El Niño conditions.
Rainfall Deficit in southern Maldives. 



 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI